Predicting the Olympics

Why Olympic short track is more unpredictable

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by Corin Nguyen

24 January 2006   |   With less than twenty days to go, medal count expectations are in full swing. Most predictions are given in general terms. For example, Canada, US, China and Korea will each win at least one of the 24 medals given for short track. That's about as broad a prediction as I can make and still call it a prediction. The chances of any of the top 4 teams being completely shut out of medal contention during the quarters and semis is unlikely. Of course, making definitive predictions are much harder.

Saying that a skater is a favorite to win and making a prediction that the skater will win are two different things. Skaters and fans alike will hedge their bets by saying anything can happen and point to Stephen Bradbury's (AUS-retired) 1000m win at the last Olympics as an example of the unpredictability of short track. However, it's more than fluke falls that make short track unpredictable.

Predicting anything is about eliminating the unknowns and making a best guess with what you have left. Right now, too many unknowns exists.

It Shouldn't Be About The Ice

One of the biggest unknowns is how the ice will effect the skating. The skaters and coaches won't know that until they arrive in Turino.

After their disappointing experiences at the Olympic Qualifiers in Holland, every skater attending the Olympics will tell you that they don't want their Olympic experience to be determined by the conditions of the ice. They want to win or lose based on their ability. They definitely don't want to lose due to ice conditions beyond their control.

That's what happened at the Olympic Qualifiers in The Hague in November. Skaters and coaches complained of the ice being dirty. The new roof on the rink was still settling and dropping dust into the ice. The zamboni was dragging bits of gravel every time it came in from the outside to resurface the ice. All these particles strip the edge on a skate blade, dulling the blade until it can be resharpened between races. A skater hitting a bad patch will suddenly find himself expending more energy to skate due to mid-race blade damage.

Apolo found himself with a stripped blade stuck last in the 1000m and unable work up enough speed to make a pass. The Canadian men took unexpected falls and didn't qualify for 3 spots in each distance. Something that they were well on their way to doing after the first trials. On the last day, the men's relay final was cancelled because the ice was down to the pavement in one of the sections.

Ice conditions don't effect all skaters equally. Some skaters, like Jiajun Li (CHN) skate very well on bad ice which is why he has a tendency to medal when the ice is less than ideal. The effects of Turino's ice on the skaters won't be known until the they start practicing on it.

At last years European Championships at the Palavela, the general consensus among the skaters was that the ice was a bit soft. Most skaters would prefer the ice to be like the pristine conditions of the Calgary rink -- solid and fast. Unfortunately, great ice is an exception not the rule. Varying ice conditions are just a part of short track. If the ice conditions aren't great, the skaters can make adjustments in their skating.

If the ice is fast but brittle, the power skaters will end up having to skate with a lighter touch to avoid the ice breaking under their skate. If the ice is soft, slow and ruts easily, the light skaters will have to skate with a little more power in order to get the speed. Skaters will adjust their skating and strategy to match ice conditions like the way pro golfers can adjust to sunny weather and fast greens or rainy weather and a headwind.

Even if the ice was perfect, a skate blade can still catch a rut and send a skater tumbling into the pads. That's a random event that can't be accounted for. Sometimes a skater just gets unlucky which adds to unpredictably to the sport.

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